The evolving agro-climatic risks related to the changing climate variability (dry spells and water balance) in a warming context

Started in December 2020

Funding: CIFRE contract with avec Groupama Rhône-Alpes Auvergne

Supervisors: Albin Ullmann & Thierry Castel

Abstract

In the context of climate change and global warming, the agro-climatic risks should no longer be considered as stationary. For example, recent studies have shown significant changes in the mean behavior of the water cycle as well as in term of temperature. These have caused historical crop losses such as wheat for the year 2016. The main question is now how changes in climate hazards would affect agro- climatic risks and agricultural losses? The PhD thesis will aim to (i) quantify the climatic-hazard and its variability, (ii) characterize the variability and changes of the associated agro-climatic risks, and (iii) assess the individual role of the risk variability and hazard variability in the agricultural losses. Long dry spells and associated hydric stress will be defined and analyzed at regional scale in France for the period 1959- 2018 with the Safran-Isba-Modcou dataset (from Météo France). The specific impact of climate change on agro-climatic risks will be studied through the observed climatic abrupt shift in 1987/1988 and probabilistic methods will be tested to define the spatial-geographical patterns of potential changes in agro-climatic risks and agricultural losses.

Keywords

climate, hazard, agroclimatic risk, dry spells, water balance, climate change

thesis advisory panel

Freddy Vinet, université Paul Valéry, UMR GRED, Montpellier
Benjamin Sultan, UMR Espace-Dev, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier

extrait:

lien_externe:

titre:

Évolution des risques agro-climatiques en lien avec les modifications de l'aléa climatique (longs épisodes secs et bilan hydrique) en contexte de réchauffement

date_de_debut_these:

décembre 2020

nom:

Laurent

date_de_debut_these_numerique:

202012

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kc_raw_content:

The evolving agro-climatic risks related to the changing climate variability (dry spells and water balance) in a warming context

 

Started in December 2020

Funding: CIFRE contract with avec Groupama Rhône-Alpes Auvergne

Supervisors: Albin Ullmann & Thierry Castel

 

Abstract

In the context of climate change and global warming, the agro-climatic risks should no longer be considered as stationary. For example, recent studies have shown significant changes in the mean behavior of the water cycle as well as in term of temperature. These have caused historical crop losses such as wheat for the year 2016. The main question is now how changes in climate hazards would affect agro- climatic risks and agricultural losses? The PhD thesis will aim to (i) quantify the climatic-hazard and its variability, (ii) characterize the variability and changes of the associated agro-climatic risks, and (iii) assess the individual role of the risk variability and hazard variability in the agricultural losses. Long dry spells and associated hydric stress will be defined and analyzed at regional scale in France for the period 1959- 2018 with the Safran-Isba-Modcou dataset (from Météo France). The specific impact of climate change on agro-climatic risks will be studied through the observed climatic abrupt shift in 1987/1988 and probabilistic methods will be tested to define the spatial-geographical patterns of potential changes in agro-climatic risks and agricultural losses.

 

Keywords

climate, hazard, agroclimatic risk, dry spells, water balance, climate change

 

thesis advisory panel

Freddy Vinet, université Paul Valéry, UMR GRED, Montpellier
Benjamin Sultan, UMR Espace-Dev, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier