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Charlène Guillaumot PhD thesis

Ecological modelling as a tool to assess the sensitivity of Antarctic marine species to environmental changes: potential, limitations and methods

Funding: FNRS, FRIA grant
Supervisors: Bruno Danis (Belgique) & Thomas Saucède
Started in  october 2017

Abstract

The aim of this project is to evaluate the potential of modelling approaches that attempt to represent the ecological niche of species present in benthic habitats of the Antarctic region. Studies lead in the Southern Ocean are fast-growing, however available datasets to initialise the models are still limited and/or biased, which can crucially impact modelling outputs.

Through several case studies considered in this thesis, will be evaluated the potential and the limits (1) of physiological models (Dynamic Energy Budget, DEB), that represent in a simple way the fundamental niche of the species (abiotic conditions favourable to their survival), (2) of distribution models (Species Distribution Models, SDM), assessing the realised niche (constriction of the fundamental niche by biotic interactions and/or dispersal barriers), (3) of population models (Individual Based Models, IBM), simulating the dynamic and structure of populations in time and (4) of lagrangian models, studying the dispersal capacity of particules following marine currents strength.

Results of these different simulations are discussed and corrections of the encountered biaises are proposed to adapt the methods currently developed to marine antarctic case studies.

Such improvements will provide relevant information about the ecological niche and sensitivity of benthic antarctic species facing global environmental changes and also will guide the calibration of models that could be applied to other case studies, such in domains dealing with management or conservation issues.

 

Keywords

Antarctic, marine, ecological modelling, ecological niche, limits, methods

Thesis advisory panel

Philippe Dubois (ULB, Bruxelles)

Marius Gilbert (VUB, Bruxelles)

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Ecological modelling as a tool to assess the sensitivity of Antarctic marine species to environmental changes: potential, limitations and methods

Funding: FNRS, FRIA grant
Supervisors: Bruno Danis (Belgique) & Thomas Saucède
Started in  october 2017

Abstract

The aim of this project is to evaluate the potential of modelling approaches that attempt to represent the ecological niche of species present in benthic habitats of the Antarctic region. Studies lead in the Southern Ocean are fast-growing, however available datasets to initialise the models are still limited and/or biased, which can crucially impact modelling outputs.

Through several case studies considered in this thesis, will be evaluated the potential and the limits (1) of physiological models (Dynamic Energy Budget, DEB), that represent in a simple way the fundamental niche of the species (abiotic conditions favourable to their survival), (2) of distribution models (Species Distribution Models, SDM), assessing the realised niche (constriction of the fundamental niche by biotic interactions and/or dispersal barriers), (3) of population models (Individual Based Models, IBM), simulating the dynamic and structure of populations in time and (4) of lagrangian models, studying the dispersal capacity of particules following marine currents strength.

Results of these different simulations are discussed and corrections of the encountered biaises are proposed to adapt the methods currently developed to marine antarctic case studies.

Such improvements will provide relevant information about the ecological niche and sensitivity of benthic antarctic species facing global environmental changes and also will guide the calibration of models that could be applied to other case studies, such in domains dealing with management or conservation issues.

 

Keywords

Antarctic, marine, ecological modelling, ecological niche, limits, methods

Thesis advisory panel

Philippe Dubois (ULB, Bruxelles)

Marius Gilbert (VUB, Bruxelles)

titre_these:
La modélisation écologique, un outil pour évaluer la sensibilité des espèces marines antarctiques aux changements environnementaux : potentiel, limites et méthodes
date_de_debut_these:
octobre 2017

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