Atmospheric dynamics associated with frost risk in Burgundy: contemporary and future variability

Started in october 2023

Supervisors: Albin Ullmann and Benjamin Bois

Funding: French Ministry of higher education and research

Abstract

Despite global warming, spring frost causes recurring damage on crops, e.g. in viticulture. With milder winters, greater earliness of the vineyard vulnerability could in certain regions, such as northeast France, lead to an increase in frost damage during the 21st century. However, these future frost risk projections are very sensitive to phenological modeling or to the errors generated in the process of spatial downscaling (statistical / dynamical) of the climatic data produced by global climate models. The thesis aims at avoiding these sources of error by studying the present and future multi-scalar atmospheric dynamics associated with the frost sequences in Burgundy. The objective is to study how the atmospheric large- scale circulation (the Weather Regimes) interact with atmospheric circulation at synoptic scale (GrossWetterlagen) and what are links with regional / local frost sequences causing Damage on the vine in Burgundy. This dynamic and multi-scalar approach will make it possible to study (ii) how large-scale changes of the main characteristics in the atmospheric circulation have modified the atmospheric conditions on the Euro-Atlantic domain and what are the consequences of these modifications on the frequency, the Intensity and the temporality of the frost sequences in Burgundy, and (ii) How this atmospheric dynamic of the frost sequences could evolve in the 21st century in numerical climate models (CMIP6) and for different climate change scenarios.

Keywords

climate change ; agro-climatic risk ; frost risk ; Burgundy

Advisory panel

Benjamin Pohl, Renan Le Roux, Florian Raymond

extrait:

lien_externe:

titre:

Dynamique atmosphérique associée au risque de gel en Bourgogne : variabilité contemporaine et future

date_de_debut_these:

octobre 2023

nom:

Collet

date_de_debut_these_numerique:

20231001

kc_data:

a:8:{i:0;s:0:"";s:4:"mode";s:0:"";s:3:"css";s:0:"";s:9:"max_width";s:0:"";s:7:"classes";s:0:"";s:9:"thumbnail";s:0:"";s:9:"collapsed";s:0:"";s:9:"optimized";s:0:"";}

kc_raw_content:

Atmospheric dynamics associated with frost risk in Burgundy: contemporary and future variability

Started in october 2023

Supervisors: Albin Ullmann and Benjamin Bois

Funding: French Ministry of higher education and research

 

Abstract

Despite global warming, spring frost causes recurring damage on crops, e.g. in viticulture. With milder winters, greater earliness of the vineyard vulnerability could in certain regions, such as northeast France, lead to an increase in frost damage during the 21st century. However, these future frost risk projections are very sensitive to phenological modeling or to the errors generated in the process of spatial downscaling (statistical / dynamical) of the climatic data produced by global climate models. The thesis aims at avoiding these sources of error by studying the present and future multi-scalar atmospheric dynamics associated with the frost sequences in Burgundy. The objective is to study how the atmospheric large- scale circulation (the Weather Regimes) interact with atmospheric circulation at synoptic scale (GrossWetterlagen) and what are links with regional / local frost sequences causing Damage on the vine in Burgundy. This dynamic and multi-scalar approach will make it possible to study (ii) how large-scale changes of the main characteristics in the atmospheric circulation have modified the atmospheric conditions on the Euro-Atlantic domain and what are the consequences of these modifications on the frequency, the Intensity and the temporality of the frost sequences in Burgundy, and (ii) How this atmospheric dynamic of the frost sequences could evolve in the 21st century in numerical climate models (CMIP6) and for different climate change scenarios.

 

Keywords

climate change ; agro-climatic risk ; frost risk ; Burgundy

 

Advisory panel

Benjamin Pohl, Renan Le Roux, Florian Raymond